Today is Day 356 of the October 7th War, a war that Hamas started. The next day, Hezbollah joined, and now the conflict involves Iran and its proxies on a total of seven fronts around Israel. Iran has established a “ring of fire” around Israel.
Difficult Days, But a Ceasefire Announcement
These are difficult days, but there is great news: the United States and France have agreed to a ceasefire. You might be thinking, “I didn’t know the US and France were at war,” and you’d be right. The US and France, along with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others, published a statement calling for a three-week ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
Missing the Word Hezbollah
I read the statement, and there’s a word missing: Hezbollah. Hezbollah is the army of terrorists inside Lebanon that has been attacking Israelis every day for the past year. Does the ceasefire require Hezbollah to disarm? No. Does it require Hezbollah to move away from the Israeli border? No. Does it require an end to its war against the people of Israel? No. The statement simply calls on the parties to give a real chance to a diplomatic settlement.
Diplomatic Silence Over the Year
Hezbollah has been attacking Israelis every day for the past year. I want to know: Where have all the world’s diplomats been until now? If you know, let me know in the comments.
Joint Statement by Global Powers
I was just handed a printout of the statement from the world powers, and I’m going to read the whole thing to you, in case you’re just listening in your car or on a podcast and can’t open up a new tab on your internet browser. This is the statement:
Joint Statement
The United States, Australia, Canada, European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, and Qatar have issued the following statement:
“The situation between Lebanon and Israel since October 8th, 2023 is intolerable and presents an unacceptable risk of a broader regional escalation. This is in nobody’s interest—neither the people of Israel nor the people of Lebanon. It is time to conclude a diplomatic settlement that enables civilians on both sides of the border to return to their homes safely. Diplomacy, however, cannot succeed amid an escalation of this conflict. Thus, we call for an immediate 21-day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border to provide space for diplomacy towards the conclusion of a diplomatic settlement, consistent with UNSCR 1701 and the implementation of UNSCR 2735 regarding a ceasefire in Gaza.
We call on all parties, including the governments of Israel and Lebanon, to endorse the temporary ceasefire immediately, consistent with UNSCR 1701, and give a real chance to a diplomatic settlement. We are then prepared to fully support all diplomatic efforts to conclude an agreement between Lebanon and Israel within this period, building on efforts over the last months to end this crisis together.”
Ceasefire Requirements and Hezbollah’s Role
The statement calls on the governments of Israel and Lebanon to accept the ceasefire. The US, France, and the other co-signers imply that the government of Lebanon is responsible for the attacks on Israel from its territory. This would be news to the government of Lebanon, which does nothing to stop Hezbollah.
UNSC Resolution 1701 and Its Failures
The statement also mentions that the ceasefire should be consistent with UN Security Council Resolution 1701. That resolution ended Israel’s last war against Hezbollah in 2006, which was 18 years ago. Resolution 1701 was supposed to prevent another war by demanding that Hezbollah disarm and move away from the Israeli border. It failed.
Resolution 1701 was supposed to ensure that no forces near the Israeli border would operate outside the authority of the Lebanese government, which never happened. Does anyone believe it will happen now? The government of Lebanon does not control Hezbollah—if anything, Hezbollah controls the Lebanese government.
Hezbollah’s Continued Aggression
As of right now, around 3:05 p.m. in Israel, there doesn’t appear to be a ceasefire. A few hours ago, I saw video from our co-founder Elon Levy, who was in Northern Israel, taking cover from incoming Hezbollah rocket fire. That’s not a sign of a ceasefire.
Also, a short while ago, the IDF announced that it targeted infrastructure along the Syria-Lebanon border used by Hezbollah to transfer weapons from Syria to Lebanon. Hezbollah issued a statement today taking responsibility for attacking the Israeli town of Kiryat Motzkin. Hezbollah is clearly continuing its aggression.
A Wider War Still Possible
A wider war can still be avoided, but only through massive pressure on Hezbollah and the Iranian regime that backs it. Hezbollah must back off, or Israel will have to push it away. Israel is already under attack on seven fronts, and it becomes even more difficult if world powers open a diplomatic front against Israel.
Questions and Answers
Regarding the 21-Day Ceasefire
John from X asks: Do you think Israel will agree to the ceasefire, and do you think it would help if China, Iran, and Russia were involved in the diplomatic process?
Right now, based on the text I read, it does not sound like something Israel would favor. Israel has been clear about its self-defense goals, primarily ensuring the safety of 60,000 Israelis who have had to flee their homes due to Hezbollah’s attacks.
Hezbollah’s Role in Lebanon
Another question from Instagram user RAT57 asks: Has Hezbollah taken total control of the Lebanese government, and if so, how do we negotiate with terrorists?
Hezbollah has enough control over the Lebanese government to prevent any meaningful action, but it hasn’t fully seized power. Hezbollah enjoys the freedom to act as it pleases, while maintaining plausible deniability.
Iran’s Involvement
Our last question from Kidon: Do you think Iran is directly intervening in the war between Lebanon and Israel?
Yes, Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy, receiving funding, weapons, and training from Iran. Hezbollah and Iran are completely aligned.
Thank you for tuning in to today’s Live Daily Briefing from the Israeli Citizen Spokesperson’s Office. Follow us on our social media platforms for updates.
